Brand loyalty card

Twice a year, an investment bank asks thousands of teenagers what they buy, and Wall Street listens harder than most parents do. Piper Sandler’s “Taking Stock With Teens” survey, which is run twice a year, covered more than 13,500 American teens in its autumn 2024 edition.^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024} We think its most interesting finding is how little changes.

Start with the phone. In autumn 2024, 87% of the teens surveyed owned an iPhone.^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024} The figure was 87% in autumn 2023^{2Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 46th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 9,193 U.S. Teens10 Oct 2023} and 87% in spring 2023 as well.^{1Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 45th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 5,690 U.S. Teens4 Apr 2023} Whatever Apple’s regulators think about its grip on the grown-up market, the teenage one has been settled for some time. Piper Sandler adds that nearly 30% of teens plan to upgrade within six months because of Apple Intelligence, a claim that is worth treating as an intention rather than a purchase.^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024}

• Footwear
• Apparel

Nike's lead holds. Share of teens naming Nike as favourite brand, %

	Footwear	Apparel
Spring 2023	61	33
Fall 2023	61	35

Source: Piper Sandler, Taking Stock With Teens¹²

Then the clothes. Nike was the top brand for teens in both apparel and footwear in the autumn 2024 edition, and it was again in spring 2024.^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024,4Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 47th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Apr 2024} Piper Sandler’s earlier releases give the shares: 61% of teens named Nike their favourite footwear brand in both spring and autumn 2023, and 33% and 35% did so in apparel.^{1Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 45th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 5,690 U.S. Teens4 Apr 2023,2Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 46th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 9,193 U.S. Teens10 Oct 2023} The later releases give no percentage, only the ranking, and the spring 2024 one notes that Nike is starting to lose share to On Running, HOKA and New Balance.^{4Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 47th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Apr 2024} That is worth watching. But a brand still named first by roughly three teens in five in footwear, and first in the rankings a year later, is not, on this evidence, in crisis. Others fill the ranks beneath it: lululemon was third in apparel and e.l.f. Beauty first in beauty,^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024} though the release gives no share for either.

Money is steadier still. Teens’ self-reported spending was $2,419 in spring 2023,^{1Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 45th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 5,690 U.S. Teens4 Apr 2023} $2,316 in autumn 2023 (down 1% on the year)^{2Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 46th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 9,193 U.S. Teens10 Oct 2023} and $2,361 in autumn 2024, up 4% on the spring survey.^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024} Between the first and last of those readings lies a drop of 2%. In spring 2024 Piper Sandler reported that spending was down 6% on the previous year,^{4Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 47th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Apr 2024} which is the sort of figure that makes a headline. Whether it reflects spending or a different sample, the release does not say.

That is the sceptic’s case against the survey, and it deserves its turn. The numbers are self-reported by teenagers, a population not famous for precision about its own accounts. The sample changes from one edition to the next: 5,690 teens in spring 2023,^{1Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 45th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 5,690 U.S. Teens4 Apr 2023} 9,193 in autumn 2023^{2Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 46th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 9,193 U.S. Teens10 Oct 2023} and over 13,500 in autumn 2024.^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024} Piper Sandler’s releases do not, in the pages we have read, give margins of error. A two-point move in a favourite-brand share may be a mood or merely a different school.

Yet the survey earns its audience for the opposite reason. A series with a long run of near-identical readings is useful, because it tells a retailer or a regulator what a real change would look like. TikTok was the favourite social app in spring 2023, with 37% against Snapchat’s 27% and Instagram’s 23%.^{1Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 45th Semi-Annual Generation Z Survey of 5,690 U.S. Teens4 Apr 2023} It was still first in spring 2024^{4Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 47th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Apr 2024} and in autumn 2024, when Piper Sandler had Instagram second and Snapchat third.^{3Piper SandlerPiper Sandler Completes 48th Semi-Annual Taking Stock With Teens Survey9 Oct 2024} The teenage economy is less fickle than its reputation. Its fashions are fast, but its loyalties are, if anything, inherited.

Investors should read the next edition accordingly. A move of a point or two means little. A move of ten would mean that something, at last, had happened.